Feb 09, 2021 NASCAR betting picks for 2021 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. Our Daytona 500 race preview and best bets for Sunday, February 14. Feb 13, 2021 Special Daytona 500 Betting Promotion! Bet $1 on any driver to win, WIN $100 (in free bets) if your driver just completes a lap. New customer offer, available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, TN, VA and WV. PA residents, don’t miss BetMGM‘s risk-free, first-bet offer! Place all of your legal, online sports bets at BetMGM. Terms and conditions apply.

The Daytona 500 will kick off NASCAR's Cup Series season Sunday (2:30 p.m. ET). Coming off two straight victories at 'The Great American Race,' three-time winner Denny Hamlin is unsurprisingly the favorite at Daytona International Speedway.

Who will take the checkered flag? Senior writer Ryan McGee, fantasy analyst Mike Clay and editor Scott Symmes offer their best bets.

Note: Odds from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless otherwise noted.

Best bets

Denny Hamlin 8-1

McGee: I want so badly to go rogue and be courageous and find some dude way down the board to make everyone lots of money, but all I know is that I am fortunate enough to be the ESPN reporter who gets to interview the Daytona 500 winner every year, and three out of the past five years it has been Hamlin. No one has ever won three straight 500s, but I don't care. Whenever I'm totally running out of questions to ask a guy because he's the only one I ever interview at the same event every year, he must be pretty damn good.

Clay: Hamlin will seek a historic feat this Sunday as he attempts to become the first driver to visit Victory Lane in three straight Daytona 500s. He has been an absolute force on superspeedways during the past three seasons, securing top-five finishes in seven of his past nine starts on drafting ovals. The nature of Daytona is bound to yield a dose of unpredictability, so you wouldn't be wrong to lean toward the longer odds, but you shouldn't pass on this favorite.

Ryan Blaney 11-1

Symmes: For Blaney, the Daytona 500 is the one that keeps barely eluding his grasp. Blaney has finished second in this race twice, including last year, when he lost by inches to Hamlin. His most impressive Daytona 500 performance came in 2018, when he led the most laps and looked poised to win before being involved in a late-race incident. (He still managed to pull off a seventh-place finish.) The Team Penske driver has two wins at Talladega, so he has shown he can close the deal on superspeedways. Blaney has clearly shown enough strength at Daytona. He just needs to find that finishing touch. Don't be surprised if Sunday is the day it finally falls into place for him.

Clay: Blaney settled for runner-up in last year's drama-filled Daytona 500, with Hamlin inching him out at the line. He followed that result with a sixth-place showing this past summer under the Daytona lights. Blaney had a slow start to his career when it came to drafting ovals, but he found his stride in 2019 with a win at Talladega and became a repeat winner at that track in 2020. If he avoids trouble, then he'll be a near lock to maintain his superspeedway prowess.

Brad Keselowski 11-1

Symmes: Blaney isn't the only Team Penske driver who's overdue to break through in the Daytona 500. Keselowski leads all active Cup Series drivers with superspeedway wins (six at Daytona and Talladega combined), but he's 0-for-11 in the Great American Race. He's often been a front-runner (he led 30 laps last year), but crashes have taken him out of contention three times in the past four years. It's about time for the former series champion's luck to turn.

Long shot

Chris Buescher 60-1

Symmes: Buescher has recorded top-5 finishes in two of the past three Daytona 500s. Only two other drivers have done that: Hamlin and Joey Logano, another former winner. That's pretty good company for Buescher, who seems to have a knack for patiently working his way to the front. He finished third in last year's Daytona 500 and followed that up with a ninth-place finish in the August Daytona race.

The NASCAR Cup Series kicks off the 2021 season at Daytona International Speedway Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET for the Daytona 500. Below we analyze the Daytona 500 NASCAR odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.

Daytona 500: What you need to know

Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 4:18 p.m. ET.

The Cup Series is scheduled to kick off its 2021 season Sunday for the Great American Race, the Daytona 500. However, we’ll have to keep a close eye on the sky. There is greater than a 60 percent chance of showers from mid-afternoon through the early evening in Daytona Beach, Fla., so a delay and/or postponement seems likely given the ominous forecast.

Monday’s forecast calls for mostly clear in the morning with a 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms moving in around 1 p.m. ET. But there is an open window in the event the race is postponed Sunday.

Kyle Busch won the Busch Clash at Daytona on Tuesday night on the road course. While that certainly doesn’t mean sure success on the tri-oval, it gives Busch a springboard into the new season after a disastrous 2020.Busch’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin

Daytona 500 Best Bets Stocks

has won each of the past two Daytona 500 races. In last year’s win, he was originally slotted in the 21st starting position but was moved to the back of the pack due to multiple failed inspections. In 30 career starts at the track he has three wins, 10 top-5 finishes and a 16.33 Average-Finish Position (AFP).Richard Childress Racing’s

Daytona 500 Best Bets Against

Austin Dillon picked up the checkered flag at the 500 in 2018. Good finishes on the restrictor-plate track are nothing new for Dillon. In 15 career starts at DIS, he has the 2018 win, two top-5 finishes, seven top-10 runs and a pole in 2014. He also has a stellar 15.53 AFP on the Florida superspeedway.Bubba Wallace will make his debut for owner Michael Jordan’s 23XI Racing, running in the No. 23 car. He was the runner-up to Dillon in 2018, posting the highest finish by an African-American driver in the 500. Bubba was fastest in Wednesday’s practice.

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Who is going to win the Daytona 500?

HAMLIN (+500) is the chalk, but you have to figure it’s time for someone else. The No. 11 has been to Victory Lane in each of the past two seasons in the Super Bowl of Stock Car Racing. Hamlin’s two wins, and three victories in the past five seasons, gives manufacturer Toyota checkered flags in three of the past five Daytona 500 races.

Hamlin joined Sterling Marlin (1994-95), Cale Yarborough (1983-84) and Richard Petty (1973-74) as the only drivers to win the Daytona 500 in consecutive seasons. No one has ever won the Daytona 500 in three straight years.

Stewart-Haas Racing’s KEVIN HARVICK (+1200) has some rather long odds given his previous success at the track. He has made 39 career starts on the Daytona tri-oval, posting two wins, 10 top-5 finishes, 262 laps led and a sharp 17.6 AFP. He also has eight DNFs at the track, second-most among active drivers behind KYLE BUSCH (+1400), so there is some risk.

Penske Racing’s JOEY LOGANO (+900) is looking to get back to Victory Lane at the 500 for the first time since 2015. He owns an impressive 18.17 AFP in 24 career DIS starts, including nine finishes of 10th or better with 156 laps led.

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Daytona 500 long-shot bet

RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (+2500) of JTG Daugherty Racing was on the pole last season and was fifth fastest in qualifying at 189.565 mph. He is always a driver to watch on the superspeedways, especially Daytona. He has a win in 17 career starts, 121 laps led and 10 finishes of 20th or better while going for a solid 19.59 AFP.

ARIC ALMIROLA (+1800) doesn’t have quite as long of odds, but he is worth a look. He appeared to be on his way to a win at the 500 in 2018, but he was bumped by Dillon and sent careening into the wall. He does have a career win in Daytona in the summer race, and he has 10 finishes of 20th or better in 18 career starts with a 20.56 AFP.

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Daytona 500 Best Odds

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