Despite a defiant tone struck by President Donald Trump during a shouty exit from the White House to assembled media (where he could be seen reading large handwritten notes stating “no quid pro quo”), the impeachment hearings against him are not going well.

Trump Tops 2024 Vegas Odds As Biden Leaves SOTU Bettors Hanging March 8, 2021 Thomas Edwards News Comments Off on Trump Tops 2024 Vegas Odds As Biden Leaves SOTU Bettors Hanging It may only be a few months into the Joe Biden “Presidency” (or “Joe Biden” Presidency – take your pick), but the buzz is already building bigly for the 2024. Predictit’s current price for Impeachment to succeed is $0.65, suggesting its more likely than not to happen. Trump is still favored to finish his term with a price of $0.80, suggestion conviction. Donald Trump’s Impeachment Odds The odds on Donald Trump being impeached. Today will rank among the most defining moments in American political history, as the House of Representatives votes to impeach Donald Trump in connection with his supporters’ siege on the US Capitol.

How bad?

So bad that oddsmakers now view his impeachment as a matter of not “if” but “when.”

Donald Trump impeachment odds

President Trump is now priced at -300 to be impeached at the European exchange Betfair. That moneyline wager means you’d need to bet $300 to win $100. The “No” odds are +250, meaning a $100 bet wins you $250.

Crowd-sourced platform Smarkets is pricing a similar outcome. “Will the House of Representatives pass articles of impeachment against Trump during his first term” is at nearly 83%.

President Trump 2020 US presidential election odds

Even though Trump’s impeachment seems likely, he’s still the favorite to be re-elected. The 2020 presidential election odds remain unchanged as of today, with Trump +130 to win the White House again.

He’s followed by Elizabeth Warren (+450). As Pete Buttigieg surges in Iowa, his odds continue to improve (+800) as well.

As former President Donald Trump faces his second impeachment over calling for lawful, peaceful protests (which is somehow now an “incitement of riot” or “seditious conduct”), an interesting thing happened on the way to the White House:

Joe Biden now has Vegas political odds posted for his own impeachment and removal from office.

Why?

Because he’s got dementia and is obviously a feeble old puppet, obviously.

But, despite all that – despite the alleged illegitimacy of his installation as President and despite the fact that he isn’t self-aware enough to understand where he is half the time (or what EOs he’s signing any of the time) – you definitely need to think twice about some of these Biden prop bets.

2021 Joe Biden Impeachment Odds

Via BetOnline

Will Joe Biden leave office via impeachment?

• No -2000
• Yes +700

No. Joe Biden will not leave office via impeachment. Additionally, you are likely to soon see odds about whether or not Biden will be forced from office via the 25th Amendment, and you should take the “No” on that line, as well.

All that said, the payout on the favorite here is pretty insubstantial at -2000 odds, particularly given the betting limits at BetOnline. Plus, your money would potentially be tied up for several years.

If you don’t mind that, then the “No” is a very safe wager, but we’re passing on this line.

What year will Kamala Harris become US President?

• 2021 +200
• 2023 +350
• 2024 +350
• 2025 +350
• 2022 +400

When this line was first posted by BetOnline, 2021 had the highest payout. Now, that belongs to 2022 for some reason.

However, 2022 is exactly the year we’d pick, even if it were the favorite. Our rationale for that will be explained in greater detail below.

Will Joe Biden complete his first term as US President?

• Yes -165
• No +125

No. The +125 payout on that option isn’t great, as this thing is very nearly a coin flip, but there seems almost zero chance that Dementia Joe will make it through four years as the Leader of the Free World™.

Biden could conceivably maintain his post as a figurehead for the duration if his health allows such, but even then, there are tactical issues with a President who doesn’t travel, can’t be left unattended with adversarial world leaders, and can’t be trusted not to gaffe it up on the international stage.

In effect, Biden will almost certianly not be President for the entirety of his four-year term.

Further, he definitely won’t be running for President in 2024 even if he miraculously makes it through his first term, even as the best Vegas election betting sites have him as the current favorite for the 2024 Democratic nomination.

Vegas Odds Trump Impeachment 10/12/19

But the real question is how Biden will be removed from office without fanning the flames or making the Democratic Party – and the mainstream media – look like liars and traitors.

Well, we believe we have the script figured out.

Channeling our best Barry Soetoro, let us be clear: The Democratic Party is not going to involve itself in a public ouster of President Biden.

It’s simply not happening.

Biden won’t be impeached over his and son Hunter’s dealings in Ukraine, and he won’t be the target of removal through the 25th Amendment.

To do this would effectively admit to the public that the mainstream media – and the Democrat Party itself – lied to the world throughout the 2020 Presidential campaign by calling such claims “baseless conspiracy theories,” “Russian propaganda,” and etc.

It would further divide an already divided country, and it would alienate so-called moderate conservatives (if those even still exist), which is the only opposition party element that the DNC actually cares about in any appreciable way.

Essentially, Trump’s narratives – regardless of their obvious veracity – simply cannot be given life by the Democrats or the MSM.

So, how can the Democrats remove Biden while making it seem an organic and even upstanding process?

That’s easy enough.

Provided Biden isn’t deathly ill and will naturally expire in a short time, the left will have to cook up a plot to remove him without “removing” him.

Of course, before we go any further, all this assumes Biden will continue to be a team player and go all in on expanding the yeoman’s work he did during the 2020 election cycle.

Provided that’s the case, this is what’s going to happen. Probably. Maybe:

Sometime within the next six to nine months, Joe Biden will have a non-descript and undisclosed “accident” in the White House or other private venue.

As a result, the President will be taken to the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Maryland, where he will be attended to in seclusion, sans media. He will be said to be recovering well (despite having nothing new to recover from).

After a couple of weeks of press statements and fawning media coverage, Biden will be “encouraged by his doctors” to return home to Delaware to continue his recovery, which will likely be beset by minor but pressing “complications.”

Biden will then allow Harris to be the acting President of the United States.

For bettors, of course, this won’t cause the above line to hit, because the acting President is not the same as the actual President. Payouts on that line will have to wait.

Sometime around mid-2022, Biden will be said to have made a complete recovery (even as his dementia will have gotten markedly worse).

But – looking at the job that Harris has done as acting POTUS – Biden will conclude that he could do no better in the post himself, and that the “inspiring” and “beautiful” Harris has proven her capability beyond any shadow of a doubt as the future of the Democratic Party.

Biden will say that Harris “deserves” to be the first female US President and that she’s “earned” the privilege. Per Biden, Harris will be the best person to lead the nation forward as it recovers from the “disastrous” Trump Administration and coronavirus pandemic.

Biden will then graciously step down and hand over the reins to Harris (on television, if he is physically able), and the MSM will laud the move as the height of morality, good grace, and traditional American statesmanship.

Biden will be a martyr without being martyred, and because the move will be predicated on an injury allegedly unrelated to his cognitive decline or other pre-election right-wing concerns (i.e. “conspiracy theories”), the moderate right will buy the narrative while the left rejoices in its new leadership.

Vegas Odds Trump Impeachment

That’s how it’s going to happen, folks.

Vegas Odds Impeachment By Senate

Bet on it.