Betting Theory - Wager against road teams when they are laying more than 7 points. Over 62% NFL handicapping angle since 1997!

Vikings Broncos Betting Line 2019

NFL Week 11: Betting odds, picks, and key stats to know. Play in Sunday's matchup against the Vikings, Jerry Jones' squad will still struggle to score. Find & compare NFL football odds and betting lines selected from the best NFL betting sites only on Bookies.com!

Since free agency started depending on which side of the fence you are on the NFL has been cursed or blessed with parity. Any given team can not only cover the spread each week, but can actually grab a straight up win

We should have titled this “Don’t bet on road favorites giving more than 7 points.
We have always preached to look for value in the underdog in any NFL point spread wager and preferably a home pointspread dog, which has historically been an even better bet.

So why would any bettor with any knowledge on how to handicap the NFL place any bets on a big road fav? If you answered “they wouldn’t”, then you are not in the class of the many weekend handicappers (squares) that continue to lay their action down on road favorites and you’re probably not sending your bookies kids to college.

Since 1997 there have been 104 games that the odds maker set a line on a road team of 7 or more points. In those games the road betting line favorite has a record of 38-63-3 for a 37.6 winning percentage. If you wagered against the road team in these situations you’d have been cashing your ticket at the betting window over 62% of the time. Last season was one of the most profitable for this wagering angle as the underdog won 8 of the 10 games.

Vikings Broncos Betting Line 2020

Below I have included the games that fit this handicapping situation since 1997.