What Horse Should I Bet On Kentucky Derby
- What Horse Should I Bet On Kentucky Derby Entries
- What Horse Should I Bet On Kentucky Derby Winner
- What Horse To Bet On Kentucky Derby
- What Horse Should I Bet On Kentucky Derby
- Kentucky Derby Bets Odds
- The Kentucky Derby is set for a May 1 date in Louisville, and trainers Bob Baffert and Brad Cox have top picks Life Is Good and Essential Quality at low odds. Horse racing and other sports for.
- With Kentucky Derby betting favorites winning the last six “Run for the Roses”, 2019 might finally be the year that the post-time favorite disappoints and the plus-money payouts return.
When betting the Kentucky Derby Futures you should always take into consideration if the horse or horses you want to bet are worth the price. If you think that Shanghai Bobby is going to win and you want to get good odds for him before the Kentucky Derby runs, he probably won't be a good future wager since his odds are somewhere around 5/1 or 6/1.
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Horse racing takes place nearly every day of the year. However, the Kentucky Derby (also known as the Run of the Roses) doubtless draws the most attention, fanfare, and betting volume of any other event on the horse racing calendar.
The Kentucky Derby is run on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. It might be the biggest horse racing event of the year, but what makes the Derby different than all other races, and how should you bet on it?
In this guide you’ll learn:
- Why the Kentucky Derby is such a big deal
- Several strategies to successfully handicap the Kentucky Derby
- Ways to wager on the Run for the Roses
The Kentucky Derby Explained
While Churchill Downs is a historic venue for horse racing on the vast majority of race days it is mostly empty. Everything changes on Kentucky Derby day, as over 100,000 people flock to the track to take in the highest profile race of the year.
Let’s delve into what makes this race bigger than all others.
A Brief History of the Kentucky Derby
The Kentucky Derby has been run since 1875.
A laundry list of the greatest horses of all time have won the Kentucky Derby. Secretariat, the fastest thoroughbred in history, prospered in a record time 1973. The previous mark was held by champion Northern Dancer in 1964. War Admiral, Whirlaway, Citation, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and American Pharoah all were first across the finish line in Louisville.
The combination of longstanding traditions and a history of elite participants provides the Kentucky Derby with its prestigious reputation.
The Kentucky Derby Is a Component of the Triple Crown
One of the most difficult things to accomplish in all sports is winning the Triple Crown. As such, it’s no wonder that the Triple Crown generates such attention with the horse racing community. Winning the Triple Crown requires a three-year-old horse to win all three races, which are all races at different distances at separate times over a five-week span.
The Kentucky Derby is the first of three racing legs of the Triple Crown’s series. Two weeks later the Preakness Stakes takes place in Baltimore, followed by the Belmont Stakes in New York.
More Horses Participate Than Normal
Most horse races have somewhere between 5 and 10 runners. The Kentucky Derby is significantly larger, welcoming an elite crop of 20 entrants.
A series of prep races that help determine who the fastest three-year-old horse is in the lead up to May ensures that all of the top contenders get a spot in the Kentucky Derby.
In the days leading up the Kentucky Derby, the great jockeys and trainers throughout the country descend upon Louisville to prepare to compete against each other on Derby Day.
The Kentucky Derby Is Chaotic
Like all sports, horse racing involves a significant degree of luck. The more obstacles present during a race, the more likely for something unusual to happen in a race.
If you have 20 horses racing, it’s almost inevitable that someone is going to get bumped or jostled. While you see this from time to time in horse racing, it is a near certainty in the Kentucky Derby. It’s yet another element that makes the race consistently unpredictable.
With more horses on the track, it’s likely that some horses will get stuck behind a wall of equine (created by the sheer volume of horses on the track) and have no room to get around after the race’s initial stages. Other horses will be forced to run wider than normal because not every entrant gets to sit right along the rail and save ground on the turns. With such a high density of horses racing, it often creates traffic problems.
If racing wasn’t a big enough problem, the weather is notoriously up in the air on Derby Day. This means that the track conditions can change in a hurry. If it pours rain, you can expect the dirt surface to turn to mud, drastically altering the complexion of the race.
Even if a horse is the best in the world racing on a certain surface, that doesn’t necessarily imply that they’ll be able to translate that to such radically different conditions. Sometimes a big longshot loves the mud.
What to Expect From the Overall Environment
What Horse Should I Bet On Kentucky Derby Entries
Horses feel pressure and so do their human connections (jockey, trainer, owner). Different people and horses react to stress in varying ways, and the Kentucky Derby is definitely one of the most stressful events on the racing calendar.
What Horse Should I Bet On Kentucky Derby Winner
When tension is high people often make mistakes. A trainer could work his horse too hard or not hard enough leading up to the big race. A jockey could make a move too early or wait until it is too late to get his horse moving at its fastest down the stretch. Whether it be an error riding or training, mistakes tend to happen when tension is high.
Some horses suffer from the long walk to the starting gate, waiting for 19 competitors to get situated, and the defining noise of a massive crowd. Others thrive under those conditions.
Betting the Kentucky Derby
With many options comes great opportunity. It is difficult to parse 20 horses and predict who will bow to pressure. Betting the Derby is no doubt a challenge, but it’s a lucrative one if you’re successful.
In addition to normal handicapping strategies such as closely examining each horse’s most recent races, and trying to determine how the race will be run (who will be ahead early, who will look to rally from behind), there are several strategies unique to the Kentucky Derby that are worth knowing and considering before betting.
Consider the Pace of the Races
The pace of any race is important. If the early leader is able to go slowly and exert little effort, he has a pretty good chance to save his energy and have enough kick left late to go wire-to-wire. Conversely, if there is a speed battle in the early going, the front runners are likely to get tired. As such, this sets up horses who have something left in the tank down the stretch.
Because the Kentucky Derby has 20 horses, it is very rare for a horse to get loose on the lead.
There are always horses amped up and aggressive early who end up falling out of position. However, taking it really easy early on and having to pass 17 or 18 or 19 horses is challenging. It is really difficult to find racing room and avoid going too wide if you are too far behind.
The horses that win the Kentucky Derby are very often those sitting in a good position just off the pacesetters. When handicapping, you are looking for tactical speed, enough to keep up and be in a good spot, but not blazing front running early speed that is hard to harness.
Stamina Matters
The Kentucky Derby is a 1.25-mile race. That is the longest race that most, if not all of the contenders have ever been in.
Assessing which horses prefer distance races to sprints is important. This can be done by looking at how they have done in previous changes in distance, and by checking out their bloodlines. If mom and dad were adept at longer races, that is a good sign that horse has a good chance to fair well in the Kentucky Derby.
What Horse To Bet On Kentucky Derby
What Class Are Horses From?
Some contenders will be more battle tested than others. Consider who horses have raced against previously, and how have they fared.
For example, winning at smaller tracks against lesser competition is not as impressive as beating the best horses at the top venues.
Who Are the Jockeys?
The track record on three-year-old horses is not vast. Some have run as few as two or three races in their life. None have competed in a race as long or with as many entries at the Kentucky Derby,
Meanwhile, the jockeys racing these horses tend to be the same people year in and year out. Considering which humans have been around winners consistently is worthwhile.
Whether it be owners, trainers, or jockeys, they have a much longer resume to examine than the horses themselves.
While trainer Bob Baffert certainly doesn’t win the Kentucky Derby every year, of the two Triple Crown winners in the last generation, he has conditioned both of them. Over the last 10 runnings of the Kentucky Derby three jockeys (Calvin Borel, Victor Espinoza, and Mario Gutierrez) have accounted for six of the victories. Pay attention to these trends.
Recently, Favorites Have Dominated the Derby
In recent years, favorites have dominated the Kentucky Derby. During the past five runnings, the highest priced payout for a $2 win bet was $11.40. However, in the five years previous, each winner paid at least $12.80 and three of the horses that won paid $30 or more.
Alternative straight bets include wagering to place and show. While neither pay as much as a win bet, there is a greater chance to cash these type of gambles. Betting to place means your horse must finish first or second in order for you to cash a ticket. A show wager requires the horse you select to finish first, second, or third in order to win your bet.
Bet to Win!
An informed bettor has the greatest opportunity to be a winning one. Our guides are a great way to learn the in’s and out’s on a wide variety of sports betting topics.
While we can’t pick the winner for you, hopefully, learning the methods of sports betting will point you in the right direction. Betting on sports is great fun and can be profitable if approached in a thoughtful way.
It is the most basic question now that will not change much in the three weeks left until the Kentucky Derby. But the answer may be as capricious as a swirling wind.
How would you bet the Derby right now?
Not knowing whether the field will fill and with what horses and with jockeys trying to figure out how they are coming and going, it is not a fair question.
Nevertheless, HRN posed it to some well-known horseplayers who will be seen in a series of stories delivering their insights on betting this unique running of America’s biggest race. Although they spoke in separate telephone conversations, their comments have been grouped where they crossed common ground.
If there was a feeling that Jonathon Kinchen, Judy Wagner, Tony Zhou and David Gutfreund shared, it was not just that it was too soon for a concrete opinion. It was that they have some basic strategy in mind that are the foundation of how they will place their bets Saturday, Sept. 5.
Of course, they all took into account the heavy favorite Tiz The Law.
JONATHON KINCHEN
Winner of the 2015 NHC Tour
Double finalist in the 2016 NHC
Fox Sports/NYRA, Austin, Texas
“I’m different than the casual fan. When I go to sleep on the first Saturday in September, if Tiz The Law wins and I walk away a loser, I can handle that. A lot of people want to see the ball go through the hoop on Derby day. With that said I’m not necessarily going to bet a lot of other horses to win the Derby. What I want to do is something that most people can’t stomach doing with the Kentucky Derby because it’s a 20-horse field. That is to single Tiz The Law in multi-race bets and use other opinions in the surrounding races. If he wins and I lose money, I’m OK with that from a fan standpoint. That’s fine. That’s how I’m going to bet the race. I have not seen anyone with a bad trip, with going a mile-and-a-quarter, with a hidden pedigree, with anything that makes me believe that they can turn the tables on what I saw here (at Saratoga) on Saturday from Tiz The Law.”
TONY ZHOU
Five times in National Horseplayers Championship
What Horse Should I Bet On Kentucky Derby
Analytics player, professional quantitative analyst
Kentucky Derby Bets Odds
New York
“The Derby is probably going to have one of the most solid lines out there. It’s kind of like the Super Bowl. Everyone is analyzing lines and players. All that money whips the market into shape unless you have some public darling horse. Typically with that much money flowing into the pool, the lines are going to be pretty solid. I never view the Kentucky Derby as a great betting proposition. But it’s just a great race to watch.”
JUDY WAGNER
Winner of the 2001 NHC
Member of the Louisiana Racing Commission
New Orleans
“I feel this year’s 3-year-old crop overall is not as strong, but that may be because I can’t tell you four or five 3-year-olds that I feel I’m excited about for the Derby. I loved seeing Tiz The Law. I really was concerned about him when they turned for home last week in the Travers. But all doubt was removed very quickly, especially by the sixteenth pole.”
DAVID GUTFREUND
Winner of the 2018 NHC Tour
15-time NHC player
Las Vegas
“The Derby is a unique race unto itself because the field size. You just don’t get that in any other races. The one thing about the Derby this year is the Kentucky horses all ran at Ellis Park last week. The New York horses ran in the Belmont and the Travers. For the most part the west-coast horses have stayed out on the west coast except for Uncle Chuck going in the Travers. So the one thing you do have going into this Derby is that you are going to see which region has the best horses. Everybody is just under the impression that Tiz The Law has been beating up on decent competition. But maybe the horses that Art Collector beat on Sunday at Ellis Park are better than the ones that Tiz The Law beat on Saturday.”
TONY ZHOU
“I think the undercard is where it’s at. Everyone spends all their time on the Derby and forgets about the rest. They spend hours and hours to analyze the Derby, and then they spend two minutes on the other races. Where it gets sloppy is the undercard. If I were to bet horizontally, it would probably be a Pick 6, because the pools are big and juicy. But aside from just wanting some action on a big pool in the Derby, I would tend to just avoid the race. Money is as green in the Derby as it is in the first maiden special weight on the card. I don’t care what race it comes from. I’m not going to force my action just because it’s the Derby. If it’s a terrible race and I have no opinion, I just won’t put much money into it. I may bet just because it’s the Derby and because it’s fun, but I’m not going to put any significant amount into it. It’s a great race for the sport. But it’s like the fan vs. gambler mentality.”
JUDY WAGNER
“My biggest excitement about the Derby is the fact that Churchill Downs is allowing a 10-cent superfecta this year. In the past you could only get a $1 superfecta. If there’s somebody I really like I key him. But when you get that many horses you can’t always do that. The biggest superfecta that I ever played in the Derby (in 2009) I had to completely rule out five or six horses. One of the horses was Mine That Bird. Needless to say you know what happened to me. That kind of cooked me on those $1 superfectas. But I think I will get a lot more interested with the 10-cent superfecta. They’re having 50-cent trifectas, too, which is nice, because you have some good opportunities to make money. I’m a serious handicapper, but I’m not a huge bettor, and I have a budget. If my budget doesn’t spread to all the races on the card, it doesn’t spread. Definitely there’s value to be had in the Derby. I still think you get good value if you can get past a prohibitive favorite like Tiz The Law.”
TONY ZHOU
“I don’t know how I will bet until literally the day before. I see how the pools move the day of. On a normal day in a normal Grade 1, I normally don’t know the names of the horses until the day before. Then I ask myself, first of all, if it’s even worth a bet. Number two, is there an opportunity to be had? Meaning I think if the public is missing something on the horse or the situation it’ll be highlighted. The next day, once I see how the odds flow, then I make the decision whether it’s worthwhile putting in a bet or not. I see what I see in the pools, and that’s when I make my decision. It’s like just like any other day actually.”
JONATHON KINCHEN
“I am a speed-figure guy through and through. Tiz The Law’s best (Beyer), which is much better than Art Collector’s or Honor A. P.’s or Thousand Words’s, was earned a mile-and-a-quarter. Even if the other three make a big improvement off of their figure when they get to the mile-and-a-quarter, it’s going to be Tiz The Law’s second time. I already know he can do it. and he did it geared down. If Honor A. P. couldn’t beat Thousand Words, he ain’t beating Tiz The Law.”
DAVID GUTFREUND
“Just a random thought on Tiz The Law. He’s had absolutely everything his own way in 2020. He has run out of his own stall, in short fields and gotten dreamy trips. The Derby is going to be 15, 16, 18, 20 horses. It’s on a track where he already flopped. The jockey (Manny Franco) is going to be under severe pressure; he has sometimes dropped the ball at the Saratoga meeting. The horses never run back on only four weeks’ rest. I do think there’s a lot of question marks around Tiz The Law. He hasn’t faced anybody like Art Collector or Honor A. P. or Thousand Words. He’s had pushover fields in the Belmont and the Travers, which were the Belmont and the Travers in name only. I’d be inclined to play against Tiz The Law. I have no idea with who, though.”
JONATHON KINCHEN
“It’s Kentucky Derby day. Since Giacomo and since Mine That Bird, a lot of people think that any horse can win the Derby. I’m actually different than that. I think every year there’s just a handful of horses that can win the Derby. It has become very formal for various reasons. I just don’t see how they’re going to beat him.”