In this Horse Racing guide, we will be taking a look at handicapping. It is a massive part of the racing world, designed to offer more competitive races. Handicapping in the UK is a weights system designed to create a leveller playing field in having in-form horses carry more weight.

Horse Handicapping Systems

But there is another definition of handicapping in racing. Predominantly in the USA, handicapping means breaking down the form of horses in a racecard to make a selection. With all that in mind, let’s get into all of this.

And More Handicapping Tips. Know what the 'bounce' theory is and when it pertains to a horse in today's race. Does the 'bounce' theory have any credibility? Yes, it sure does, but you need to know when a horse is most likely to bounce off a top effort and when he is most likely to continue on with an equal or better effort in his next outing. RacingDudes.com is the destination site for all things horse racing. In addition to free win selections offered to nearly every track running in the country, we also offer articles, breaking news, track reports, betting tips, exclusive photos, handicapping products, and our weekly podcast – Blinkers Off. Employ Your Preferred Handicapping Method. EZ Horse Betting has provided its readers with access to a large number of handicapping and betting systems. We cannot claim that any one of them is superior to another. What we can say is that the failure to use some type of method is a recipe for failure. Occasionally we will have 3 horses to handicap. VERY IMPORTANT If a horse has only run one race then find the Stretch Call Position of the horse in the race and double the position number. Example: 5 2 4 3/4 3 2 4 4 3 4 1/2 The Stretch Call Position Number is 4. Since the horse has only one race we will double the 4 to give the horse a.

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Horse Handicapping Explained

In this Horse Racing guide, we will be taking a look at handicapping.It is a massive part of the racing world, designed to offer more competitive races. Handicapping in the UK is a weights system designed to create a leveller playing field in having in-form horses carry more weight.

What is handicapping exactly? It is a system where different horses in the same race will be carrying different weights. How much weight exactly that is, depends on form. When a horse wins, his handicapping rating will go up. An official handicapper sets the amount of weight the horses will carry.

A horse with a highrating means that they are carrying more weight. If you see a horse rating at144 then that means the weight of the horse, saddle, irons and jockey all addup to 144 lbs. If that horse goes out and wins by a few lengths, even with thathandicap, that weight will go up again.

So a horse with lesssuccessful form would be carrying less weight in the race, to try and create acompetitive run. Carrying less weight should mean that it has a better chanceof not just being left behind at the back of the pack against better horses.

A horse carryingextra weight will mean that they have to work harder to either get up to fullspeed or to maintain a full gallop. The system isn’t totally perfect, but ittries to give a good, even playing field. The knock-on effect for the punter isthat it becomes a major factor to learn how to assess handicapping weights.

Without handicaps,the quickest horse should win a race. Almost every time. But because the besthorse in the field is running under a weight disadvantage, while the worst hasa big advantage, then the difference in competitiveness narrows. It’s down tothe punter to try and then determine not necessarily which is the best horse,but which will handle the handicap weights for that race the best.

ThoroughbredHandicapping

Let’s just jumpstraight into this. This is a term that you may come across and it’s one thatis predominantly used in the USA. Think about Official Handicappers and howthey spend a long time assessing and assigning weights for horses based onform. Thoroughbred handicapping, is basically punters doing the same thing asthose official handicappers.

Thoroughbredhandicapping (just referred to as handicapping) is the skill involved in tryingto pick out a winning selection through the study of form. Thoroughbredhandicapping is just predicting the outcome of races. You build up a bank ofform pointers, take a look at the horse if possible (on tv or at the track) andthen strike at the right time when the odds are in your favour.

Although it can gethighly complex, the basics of thoroughbred handicapping are nothing differentfrom what the average UK punter will be doing sat in front of the day’snewspaper with the racing pages open.

Just as a note, thereare some slightly different form-factors from USA racing to that of the UK, oneof them being top speed. That is because most North American courses are thesame oval layout and a one mile trip at one is pretty much exactly the same asit is at another. That allows speed stats to come more into play.

It’s not the same inthe UK, where there is a wide variety of track styles and conditions, so topspeed as a form factor, can’t really be used too much. There are other subtledifferences, but we’ll focus on handicapping UK racing.

Handicapping101

You are doinghandicapping when you are studying form. In the UK it’s just not going to becalled that. Instead, you are just well, ‘studying form.’ Either way, you areengaging in the process of taking certain pieces of information and forming anoverall picture of the potential outcome.

For a race, you maybreak down stats by looking at Form, Ability, Class and Race Conditions. Thatis how you, as a punter, handicap. Handicapping a horse race is picking out thefactors which could determine the outcome of the race. Of course, there arenever any certainties when it comes to horse racing, all you can do is lineyourself up with the best overview of a particular racecard.

There are manydifferent ways that you can handicap a horse race. Looking at the differentfactors and different ways to do this, sort of in a handicapping 101 kind ofway, can help you to create and build your own handicapping skills. This will,in turn, allow you to apply the knowledge to look for the best value.

Best Way to Handicap Horse Races

While we are talking about handicapping as being the art form of picking out a horse, let’s scan over a few of the best ways to handicap horse races. This is just an overview of some of the key factors to consider. You can always take a look at our Top 10 Factors To Consider for Picking a Winning Horse for fuller details of what form involves.

Form

No two ways about it, form is everything. A horse in positive current form, winning races is doing his best work. He’s probably at a seasonal peak. The most basic overview of handicapping a horse is to simply see which of the runners in a field has a bit of winning form behind them.

Form, how a horse hasfinished in recent races, can tell a story, albeit a broad one. If there is ahorse who has won twice and placed once in his last three races, just from thatyou know he’s in form. As great as a horse has run in the past, if the currentform isn’t showing for them, it’s the current running ability that counts.

Weight/Official Rating

The official rating.It cannot be ignored in horse racing, which ties us nicely back to whathandicapping in British racing means. It’s such a massive factor, it is whathorses are rated by. A horse in winning form is just going to get slapped withmore weight for their next race.

You should be able tolook back and see how a horse has performed under certain weights in theircareer. Trying to predict how well a horse is going to be able to adapt notonly to the weight but the weight under the current race conditions (distance,course, class and track conditions) is a huge aspect of handicapping.

Conditions

Are the trackconditions and race distance suitable for a horse? These two do go hand inhand. If a horse has won at 1 mile in his last race with firm conditions underfoot,but now has extra handicapping weight and is doing another 1-mile trip in heavyconditions, how will that factor into his performance?

Similarly, ifconditions are the same but the horse is going over a longer trip, again withmore weight to carry because of good recent performances, how does that playinto his ability? You know that old saying, horses for courses, without adoubt, there are just certain horses who turn up and perform better on oneparticular course than another because of conditions.

Trainer/Jockey

This is quite a favourite among punters and there are three different options. You will find that first up, some punters will start with looking at a jockey and seeing what horse they are on.

Top jockeys win more races because they get better rides, so that can be a useful guidepost. The same with trainers, it’s not difficult to see which trainers are in form and which has performed well in certain big races, or at a certain racecourse, before. There is also a trainer and jockey combination, those pairings that just always seem to work together in harmony.

Horse Racing Handicapping System and Strategies

Horse racinghandicapping systems can be a bit of fun to look at. You can even get down tocreating your own. There is no foolproof handicapping betting system out there,so get that idea out of your head. First though, what is a handicapping system?After all, all that form we mentioned above has all been studied anyway, right?

What can a system do?A handicapping system can be thought of as some betting guidelines that youplace on yourself. It’s a little less to do with form, but more about value foryour betting. Let’s absorb a few of these handicapping systems.

Avoid Short Prices

Bookmakers winbecause favourites lose. Never let that phrase go far from your mind. Fewerfavourites win national hunt races than favourites in flat races do. Shortprices do the punter no favours at all, certainly not backing odds-onfavourites all the time. In 2018, 61% of odds-on favourites in the UK flatseason won. That’s almost 40% that didn’t

Let’s get some math on. In 2018 there were nineteen 8/13 odds-on favourites in UK racing. Of that only 36% won. A £10 stake on 8/13 would return £6.15 profit. If you had staked £10 on all 19 of those odds-on favourites and only 36% won, your return on investment would have been -40%. Well out of pocket.

The caveat to this,is that it’s not uncommon to find far more decently priced favourites (3/1 forexample) in a horse racing than having to ever bother with odds-on prices.There were 299 flat runners in 2018 in the UK who went off at 3/1. Of them 63won (21%) and the return on investment would have been -15.7% still not great,but with a better chance of getting to profit than the aforementioned odds-onfavourites.

In national huntracing, the numbers tally to about a third of favourites winning, regardless ofprice. That means that if you back the favourite in every race you are onlygoing to win once in every three races on average. At odds-on prices, that’sgoing to empty your bankroll quickly.

Each Way? No way!

Handicapping, studying form, whatever you want to call it, can be a lot of work. But rewarding work nonetheless. At the end of the day, each way betting can be a yield drag. If you have done your due diligence with handicapping, found a horse you fancy to win, why suddenly cast doubt in that, well, they may only place?

The yield on betting win-only instead of each-way is likely going to be higher (depending on your handicapping skill). The strike rate of getting something back from a race is likely to drop when betting win only, but the stronger yield of profits from doing this is probably going to be there. Of course, this is just a matter of betting preference, we’re not trying to say Each Way betting has no place. It does. This is just an example of a simple handicapping system.

Frankie Dettori at Kempton on Good Going

That’s probably a bitof an exaggerated rule. But if you look at the stats, which you are going to bedoing for horse racing handicapping anyway, and you see Frankie Dettori has won75% of his races at Kempton while the going is good, then that’s a massivetrend to jump on.

Similarly, if Dettorihad won just 10% of Kempton visits in heavy conditions, that tells an equallybig story. Namely that you should probably think twice about his mount winningthe race if that’s the same conditions.

That is just an exampleof the kind of betting system rules that you can make up yourself. How do youever get to such a conclusion? Gorge yourself on a big old feast of horseracing stats.

Horse Race Handicapping Methods

Basicpointers for handicapping

Your handicapping opinion counts

Never just assumethat the favourite in a race is the real favourite. Don’t take what thebookmaker says at face value, do your own research and take a statisticalapproach. The value in a horse race may very well not on the outright favouritewhen it comes to handicaps. Especially if only a third of favourites win (seeabove). Of course, there are going to be occasions where backing the favouriteis the best thing to do. Just don’t do it blindly.

Common Sense

Common sense playsinto handicapping. Basically what we mean by this is don’t make-up excuses asto why you think a horse can win. That is not a good road to go down. If youare looking at form for example and see that a horse hasn’t placed in his lastcouple of runs in similar races, then don’t dismiss that info. Don’t push itaside just because you want that particular horse to fit into what you want itto be. Use the cold hard facts.

Handicapping Last Winning Mark

You can’t just look at winning form of a horse alone. It has to be put into context. By that, we mean at what mark (official rating/weight) that it won. If you find yourself contemplating a horse which has a rating at 82 for example but you look back as see that it has never won a race above a mark of 75, well that could be an issue.

If you look the other way around, a horse which has previously won at a rating of 75 and is now lining up at 67, then that could pique some interest. But always, of course, check to see why the rating had dropped.

Reverse Handicapping

This is a pretty straight forward process where you just reverse the order in which you look at horses. Generally when you are handicapping a race then you are looking at the main contenders to see which makes the best fit for a win.

If you reverse then you start with the worst horses and cross them off the list. You can take the same form factors like class and current form and basically see which horses just aren’t coming up to scratch and kick them out as options. So you are instead of looking for which horse is going to win, reverse handicapping means you are looking for those most likely to lose.

Handicapping Distance

This is something ofa staple in horse racing handicapping. The basic premise is that some horsesenjoy certain distances more than others. The obvious thing here is that astayer, a horse with grand endurance in long races, isn’t going to make a greatsprinter over 6 furlongs. However, there’s a little more to distancehandicapping than that.

Let’s say that youare looking at a horse who didn’t win their last race at one mile (8 furlongs).His next race is over 6 furlongs. You look back at his one-mile effort and seethat he was well in contention at the 6-furlong mark, but he just had nothingleft in the tank to go the extra distance in the longer race. So in thisinstance, a shorter trip is very likely going to suit this particular horse.

Best Horse Handicapping Sites

After all that work of sifting through statistical info, you need to get the bet down. Whichever bookmaker that you use, maybe one of the top ones like Bet365 or an exchange like Betfair, you will want to familiarise yourself with it.

Learn where to quickly click to get to form and what other betting options that they have available on there. Whether you access everything from just the racing lobby on the site or browse deeper into markets, know where to go. From there, make your selections and strike your bet. Don’t forget to always have a plan. Always have a bankroll in place so that you stay in control and bet with your handicapping head, not your heart.

Horse Handicapping FAQ:

It has to do with breeding. Racehorse theory is trying to match up the best stallion with the best mare to try and create the best progeny. Things like bloodstock and pedigree are big things in horse racing.

You are making your assessment of runners in a horse race. If you create your analysis and price up each horse on a card, then you will be able to stack those odds up against what a bookmaker has priced the race up as.
If the bookie has accessed a particular horse at 5/2 but you think they are more of a 2/1 shot, you have value because the bookie is offering a bigger price than what you think the horse should be after all of your handicapping assessment. Crack out the betting calculator to calculate odds quickly.

A quick, condensed version of handicapping. The name comes from a famous book by Frank DiTondo. It is not so much of a complicated system of how to handicap but how to sift through all of the information that you can find in horse racing stats.

This is how a horse plans out a race. You may find a horse that likes to sit just off the front or one that likes to sit on the outside of the pack further back. Why is this important? Track conditions can affect say a “closer” who runs the race from the back of the back and relies on a burst of speed to finish. Heavier ground makes that strategy tougher.

If a horse is a maiden then it means that it hasn’t won a race before. You could, for example, create a handicap rule where you eliminate any maidens immediately from a race card, especially if they are into their third or fourth season.

Yes, there are well-established systems of handicapping by the British HorseRacing Authority for both flat and jump racing. For both forms of racing, handicaps are broken down into different classes (1,2,3,4,5,6,7) with Class 1 the best and Class 7 the lowest.

I got an e-mail from a guy recently asking me how I go about handicapping using online past performances. He explained that he hated to print out all the PPs, yet he wasn’t comfortable analyzing races on a computer screen.

It’s a great question… and a common lament, I think.

Generally, I print out either my Pace Profile Report or my Win Factor Report and record all my comments on them, as opposed to wasting both paper and ink printing out pages and pages of past performances. And it got me to thinking: maybe I could come up with something more generic than my reports that would work just as well.

I could and I did.

What’s more, I even came up with a rating system that, in certain instances, will allow handicappers to start with a positive ROI or at least minimize the track takeout.

The system rules are as follows:

* Consider a horse’s most recent race and award points equal to its finishing position in that affair (“1” for a win, “2” for a second, “3” for a third and “4” for all out-of-the-money efforts).

* Divide the number of days since the horse’s last race by 10 and add to the above (all races over 40 days old are worth four points).

* Rank each horse’s last-race speed rating (using whatever figures you’re most comfortable with) and add it to the total. If the speed rating is not ranked among the top three, it’s worth four points.

* Using stats from this year and last, divide each horse’s total earnings by its total starts and rank the quotients from highest to lowest. Horses ranked fourth or worse are awarded four points.

* Using two-year data once again, rank each horse by its win percentage. As usual, horses ranked worse than third are given four points.

NOTE: In the event of ties, average the ranking, e.g. a tie between two horses for first and second counts as 1.5 (1+2 = 3/2 = 1.5).

Play – Bet the horse with the lowest cumulative ranking provided it last raced over today’s general surface (dirt/AWS or turf).

Below is an example of the worksheet in action. It is for the fourth race at Turf Paradise on March 29, 2015:

Of course, as is always the case with examples of this type, Pride and Promise paid $11.80 to win.

To download a blank copy of the Handicapping Worksheet, click HERE.